Next-day risk, Ghent bathing sites, 17 May
| Site | Risk | vs usual | Level |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gent Blaarmeersen Peuterspeelkreek GNT03 | 8.6% | 5.5x | watch |
| Gent Blaarmeersen Strand-Badzone GNT02 | 8.5% | 9.4x | watch |
| Gent Blaarmeersen Zwemsportzone GNT01 | 2.6% | 2.7x | normal |
| Deinze Vosselare Put DEI01 | 1.8% | 1.6x | normal |
Alert at 10% risk (1 alert in 5 is a real exceedance across Europe). Watch at 5x a site's usual risk. Scores use weather up to the day before.
Live: risk from today's weather forecast
Reading the forecast...
Open-Meteo forecast for Ghent, refreshed hourly. The forecast rain stands in for measured rain. The model is tuned for the bathing season, when sites are sampled.
Other hazards: rules on the weather
Reading the weather...
No labelled data exists to train these, so they are rules: warm, calm weather for algae (WHO guidance), heat runs and first flushes for oxygen, heavy daily rain for sewer overflow. Default thresholds; each city tunes its own. They need no local samples, so they run in any city from day one.
Backtest: GENT BLAARMEERSEN PEUTERSPEELKREEK, May 2021
Model trained without any Ghent sample. Observed rain stands in for the forecast.
✓Predict
2Detect
3Verify
- + 0.35 Model risk 5.5x the site's usual
One source is not enough to go public. The officer confirms once a second source agrees.